Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) is predicting Vancouver condo prices will fall around seven to eight per cent by year’s end compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, though some stabilization could occur in 2027.

In a June 11 research note, the bank said this would amount to a 15-per-cent correction since 2023 and the deepest correction since at least 2005, illustrating its severity.

“It’s hard to tease out any one factor as being the main driver,” said Rishi Sondhi, author and economist with TD.

Post-pandemic interest rate normalization pushed up borrowing rates, weighing on activity, while 2025 brought higher economic uncertainty due to U.S. trade policy, he said.

There has also been a broader slowdown in the Canadian economy and softening labour market conditions in Vancouver, he said.

Another factor is that when prices fall, it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy in housing in that potential buyers wait on the sidelines, not wanting to catch a falling knife.

The timing of stabilization will depend on interest rates, the labour market, measures of uncertainty and the actual sales, listings and price data, Sondhi said.

It will also depend on whether sellers budge on pricing. Potential tailwinds would be lower interest rates if the Iran deal holds and oil flows, easing inflation, an expeditious Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) trade deal, pent-up demand from immigrants and improving affordability.

“We don’t think 2027 is going to be a gangbuster year by any means,” he said.

Ryan Berlin, chief economist and vice-president of intelligence at Rennie, said benchmark prices for Metro Vancouver condos peaked in the spring of 2022. Right now, they’re down about 11 per cent from that peak.

“We’re more than 48 months into this downturn,” he said.

Rennie’s forecast at the start of the year was that by the end of 2026, condo prices would drop another four percentage points from where they were. So far this year, they’ve dropped about one to two per cent.

“We’re essentially on track for our current forecast of condo prices for this region, and that sounds like it’s pretty consistent with what TD is saying,” he said.

There’s a lot of inventory—Berlin said there are more homes available for this generation of buyers than there have been in memory—but year-to-date sales activity has not picked up compared to 2025, a historically slow year.

“Technically it’s a balanced market, but really there is nothing that is putting upward pressure on prices,” he said.

“I don’t expect supply-demand conditions and macroeconomic conditions to change significantly enough over the next year, year-and-a-half, for there to be material increases in values.”

Hasan Juma, a Realtor with Oakwyn Realty Ltd. who specializes in condos, said the TD report is consistent with what he’s seeing across most areas of Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, but certain pockets of the market are holding up.

Prices for entry-level condos, such as re-sale one-bedrooms at lower price points, are not shifting down as significantly as new-construction condos bought in presale and have just recently completed, he said.

“We’re looking at $800,000, $900,000-dollar condos … their prices are dropping much more significantly, so it really depends what sort of price point you’re looking at and what type of specific condo,” he said.

Surrey apartment prices have seen relatively steep declines, down 8.8 per cent in May compared to a year earlier, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. Juma said some areas of Surrey have seen even bigger drops than that, but prices appear to be stabilizing in areas closer to Vancouver.

Burnaby has been hit quite hard due to having a lot of newer condos in Brentwood and Metrotown at higher price points around $900,000 or $1 million for two-bedrooms, he said.

“Buyers are making a decision between: ‘Do I buy this condo, or do I move further east and potentially get myself into a townhome with a nice little yard, lower strata fees?’” he said.

“So that higher-priced condo is competing not just with other condos but it’s competing with a whole different product type as well.”

Richmond condos have historically done quite well but are seeing higher inventory as the impact of less immigration is felt. The population is seeing fewer newcomers purchasing or renting condos, causing fewer investors to enter Richmond’s condo market, he said.

Juma said stabilization will depend on whether activity and sales volume pick up as prices come down, while taking into account listed, unlisted and newly delivered inventory.

“We’re at least another year out, probably even a little bit longer than that,” he said.